NO POLITICAL GRANDSTANDING HERE. JUST A LOOK AT MY OSCAR PREDICTIONS.

Article by Adam Mast

The 88th annual Academy Awards are right around the corner. What can we expect from the February 28th ABC telecast hosted by Chris Rock? Lots of political jokes and tons of star power, that’s what!

Beyond that, it should be noted that awards shows are, generally speaking, pretty self-congratulatory in nature, but this is a classy affair and while the Oscars are hardly a perfect barometer for all that is great in film as an art form– not to overstate the obvious, but this stuff is subjective, after all– they are a lot of fun to watch. Furthermore, we all have our favorites and there’s nothing wrong with getting behind a movie you love.

Without further adieu, here’s one crazed movie fan’s predictions of how the overall evening will shape up. Play along and come Sunday, February 28th, let’s see who comes closest.

PICTURE:

THE BIG SHORT
BRIDGE OF SPIES
BROOKLYN
MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
THE MARTIAN
THE REVENANT
ROOM
SPOTLIGHT

That’s quite a list. A list in which two things immediately spring to mind: 1. Why is “Brooklyn”–a pleasant enough but slightly overrated movie–in the mix? and 2. Why in the world would the Academy only nominate eight films when there were a plethora of films to choose from that easily could have occupied the  9 and 10 spots (“Son of Saul” and “Inside Out” just to name two)?!

Having said that, there are some great movies up for Best Picture. Steven Spielberg returned with “Bridge of Spies,” a very low key movie that might just be the most understated of “the Beard’s” illustrious career. “The Martian” is the strongest movie Ridley Scott has made in the better part of a decade. “Room” proved to be the little independent movie that could in 2016 and its deserving of all the praise it has received. This brings us to the four most notable contenders of the bunch: “Spotlight,” “The Big Short,” “Mad Max: Fury Road,” and “The Revenant.”

“Spotlight” and “The Big Short” trade in bombast, action, and a “I-can’t-even-believe-this-movie-exists” attitude for intimacy and stellar ensemble acting and both are more than worthy of their nominations.

“Mad Max: Fury Road” and “The Revenant” are technical marvels and are primarily noted for being two of the most grueling film shoots in recent memory. While I respect and admire the pure artistry and visual bravado at the heart of Alejandro  Iñárritu’s meditative tale of survival and revenge, that film simply didn’t grab me on an emotional level.

“Fury Road” is an action film of the highest caliber directed with flair by 70 year old George Miller. The argument in many circles is that “Mad Max” is big on action and lacking in everything else. Personally, I think there’s a lot more to “Fury Road” then folks are willing to give it credit for. It’s a spectacularly directed movie about finding hope in a hopeless world. What’s more, it’s quite a thrill to see a man of Miller’s age direct with such ferocity.

Having said that, I suspect we’re looking at an Iñárritu repeat. While “The Revenant” was far from my favorite film of 2016, there’s no doubt that it is a visual marvel anchored by a couple of very strong performances. and camera work that boggles the mind.

Will Win: THE REVENANT
Should Win: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD

DIRECTOR:

George Miller – MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
Alejandro G. Iñárritu – THE REVENANT
Adam McKay – THE BIG SHORT
Tom McCarthy – SPOTLIGHT
Lenny Abrahamson – ROOM

Honestly, you could make a strong argument for any of these directors taking home the gold. This is one tough category. Iñárritu won for “Birdman” last year and already picked up the prestigious DGA award this year, so it’s safe to say he’ll probably be winning the Oscar, too.

Adam McKay brought energy and a welcome sense of humor to a story of the housing market collapse in “The Big Short” while Tom McCarthy fashioned an exquisite ode to real investigative journalism in “Spotlight.” Lenny Abrahamson proved that home is truly where the heart is with his creative direction in “Room.”

At the end of the day though, as much as I love the other filmmakers in this category, I keep coming back to George Miller, a man who directed an action film with the energy of a filmmaker half his age. Just a stunning achievement and the fact that “Fury Road” is an action movie should not be held against him. It’s a great film, period!

Will Win: Alejandro Iñárritu for THE REVENANT
Should Win: George Miller for MAD MAX: FURY ROAD

ACTOR:

Bryan Cranston – TRUMBO
Matt Damon – THE MARTIAN
Leonardo DiCaprio – THE REVENANT
Michael Fassbender – STEVE JOBS
Eddie Redmayne – THE DANISH GIRL

Unfortunately, I missed “Trumbo” but I hear that Cranston is the only real reason to see it. In “The Martian,” a stellar Matt Damon delivered a performance of Tom Hanks/”Cast Away” proportions. Eddie Redmayne was good in “The Danish Girl” but he was greatly upstaged by co-star Alicia Vikander. Michael Fassbender positively killed it in Steve Jobs. It might be his best work to date. Having said that, there’s very little doubt that DiCaprio is finally going to take home a statue. He’s been so good for so long, that this time, he wont be denied. The truth is though, he was worthy of the honor for his unapologetic turn in the polarizing “The Wolf of Wall Street.” Hell, he should have won Best Supporting Actor for his work in “What’s Eating Gilbert Grape” over 20 years ago. I’ll be really surprised if Leo doesn’t take home the gold on Sunday night.

Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio
Should Win: Michael Fassbender

ACTRESS:

Brie Larson – ROOM
Cate Blanchett – CAROL
Jennifer Lawrence – JOY
Saoirse Ronan – BROOKLYN
Charlotte Rampling – 45 YEARS

I didn’t get to see “45 Years” but I’ve heard nothing but high praise for Charlotte Rampling’s work in that picture. Saoirse Ronan is fantastic in a good but overhyped “Brooklyn.” Likewise, Jennifer Lawrence was good in “Joy” but she’s been better in other more noteworthy films. Cate Blanchett is the very personification of class in “Carol” and as much as I loved her old school Hollywood portrayal in Todd Haynes’ much talked about film, I’m rooting for Brie Larson, here. As a mother providing for her son in the most dire of situations, Larson is tough, vulnerable, and understated in equal measure. I suspect a newbie is going to take home the gold.

Will Win/Should Win: Brie Larson

SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Christian Bale – THE BIG SHORT
Mark Rylance – BRIDGE OF SPIES
Tom Hardy – THE REVENANT
Mark Ruffalo – SPOTLIGHT
Sylvester Stallone – CREED

Another fierce category! How else could names like Idris Elba (“Beasts of No Nation) and Jacob Tremblay (“Room”) justifiably be left out of the running? Seriously! You could make an argument for any of these amazing actors taking home the gold in any given year, but in the case of Best Supporting Actor, it’s safe to say that a man known for playing an underdog is far from being the underdog in this particular category. While it certainly wont be a landslide victory, Sylvester Stallone is favored. His return to the role that put him on the map is also one of the strongest performances of his career and I’d love to see Sly win the gold for no other reason than to watch him get up on stage and yell: “Yo Adrian! I did it!!”

Will Win/Should Win: Sylvester Stallone

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Jennifer Jason Leigh – THE HATEFUL EIGHT
Rooney Mara – CAROL
Rachel McAdams – SPOTLIGHT
Alicia Vikander – THE DANISH GIRL
Kate Winslet – STEVE JOBS

Another tough category and quite frankly, I don’t know that there’s a lock. For a while, it was looking like Jennifer Jason Leigh was a sure thing for her work in “The Hateful Eight” but Alicia Vikander has garnered quite a bit of buzz for her dominating turn in “The Danish Girl” while Rooney Mara has earned raves for standing toe to toe with Cate Blanchett in “Carol.”  And don’t underestimate Kate Winslet. She’s already won a few of awards for her work as Jobs’ right hand lady in “Steve Jobs.” Ugh! This is a tough one!

Will Win/Should Win: Alicia Vikander

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

BRIDGE OF SPIES – Matt Charman, Ethan Coen, Joel Coen
EX MACHINA – Alex Garland
INSIDE OUT– Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, and Josh Cooley
SPOTLIGHT – Josh Singer & Tom McCarthy
STRAIGHT OUTTA COMPTON – Jonathan Herman and Andrea Berloff

Will Win/Should Win: SPOTLIGHT

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

BROOKLYN – Nick Hornby
THE BIG SHORT – Charles Randolph, Adam McKay
CAROL – Phyllis Nagy
THE MARTIAN – Drew Goddard
ROOM – Emma Donoghue

Will Win/Should Win: THE BIG SHORT

ANIMATED FEATURE:

ANOMALISA
BOY & THE WORLD
INSIDE OUT
SHAUN THE SHEEP
WHEN MARNIE WAS THERE

Will Win/Should Win: INSIDE OUT

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:

EMBRACE OF THE SERPENT (Colombia)
MUSTANG (France)
SON OF SAUL (Hungary)
THEEB (Jordan)
A WAR (Denmark)

Will Win/Should Win: SON OF SAUL

CINEMATOGRAPHY:

CAROL – Ed Lachman
THE HATEFUL EIGHT – Robert Richardson
MAD MAX: FURY ROAD – John Seale
THE REVENANT – Emmanuel Lubezki
SICARIO – Roger Deakins

I have to comment on this one. This might be the toughest category of the night. Honestly, they should just call it a five way tie! Like that will ever happen. The general consensus seems to be that Emmanuel Lubezki is going to threepeat (he won for “Gravity” and “Birdman”) and I’m inclined to agree. Having said that, my vote would go to Roger Deakins, a master DP who, shockingly, has never won an Oscar! This wouldn’t be a pity award, though. His work in “Sicario” is astonishing!

Will Win: THE REVENANT
Should Win: SICARIO

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:

AMY
CARTEL LAND
THE LOOK OF SILENCE
WHAT HAPPENED, MISS SIMONE?
WINTER ON FIRE: UKRAINE’S FIGHT FOR FREEDOM

Will Win: CARTEL LAND
Should Win: THE LOOK OF SILENCE

DOCUMENTARY SHORT:

A GIRL IN THE RIVER: THE PRICE OF FORGIVENESS
BODY TEAM 12
CHAU, BEYOND THE LINES
CLAUDE LANZMANN: SPECTRES OF THE SHOAH
LAST DAY OF FREEDOM

Will Win/Should Win: BODY TEAM 12

ANIMATED SHORT:

BEAR STORY
PROLOGUE
SANJAY’S SUPER TEAM
WE CAN’T LIVE WITHOUT COSMOS
WORLD OF TOMORROW

Will Win: SANJAY’S SUPER TEAM
Should Win: WORLD OF TOMORROW

LIVE-ACTION SHORT:

AVE MARIA
DAY ONE
SHOK
STUTTERER
EVERYTHING WILL BE OKAY (ALLES WIRD GUT)

Will Win/Should Win: DAY ONE

VISUAL EFFECTS:

EX MACHINA
MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
THE MARTIAN
THE REVENANT
STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS

Will Win/Should Win: STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS

PRODUCTION DESIGN:

BRIDGE OF SPIES
THE DANISH GIRL
MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
THE MARTIAN
THE REVENANT

Will Win/Should Win: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD

COSTUME DESIGN:

CAROL
CINDERELLA
THE DANISH GIRL
MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
THE REVENANT

Will Win: CINDERELLA
Should Win: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD

MAKE-UP & HAIR:

MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
THE 100-YEAR-OLD MAN WHO CLIMBED OUT THE WINDOW AND DISAPPEARED
THE REVENANT

Will Win: THE REVENANT
Should Win: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD

FILM EDITING:

THE BIG SHORT
MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
THE REVENANT
SPOTLIGHT
STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS

Will Win/Should Win: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD

SOUND MIXING:

BRIDGE OF SPIES
MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
THE MARTIAN
THE REVENANT
STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS

Will Win: THE REVENANT
Should Win: STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS

SOUND EDITING:

MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
SICARIO
THE MARTIAN
THE REVENANT
STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS

Will Win: THE REVENANT
Should Win: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD

ORIGINAL SCORE:

BRIDGE OF SPIES – Thomas Newman
CAROL – Carter Burwell
THE HATEFUL EIGHT – Ennio Morricone
SICARIO – Jóhann Jóhannsson
STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS – John Williams

Will Win/Should Win: THE HATEFUL EIGHT

ORIGINAL SONG:

“Earned It” from FIFTY SHADES OF GREY
“Manta Ray” from RACING EXTINCTION
“Til It Happens To You” from THE HUNTING GROUND
“Simple Song #3” from YOUTH
“Writing’s On The Wall” from SPECTRE

Will Win/Should Win: TIL IT HAPPENS TO YOU

ABC presents the 88th Annual Academy Awards  telecast on February 28th, with Chris Rock serving as your host.