ADAM’S 2015 OSCAR PREDICTIONS

If based on other awards shows, Best Picture looks to be a two horse race. “Birdman” and “Boyhood” are clearly the favorites and while I greatly enjoyed both of these pictures, as well as the majority of the other nominees, I’d love nothing more than to see “Whiplash” take home the gold. That simply isn’t going to happen though. With “American Sniper” tearing it up at the box-office, the Clint Eastwood flick could emerge as a dark horse. The same could be said of the virtually shut out “Selma”. Academy members could see it fit to award this emotionally charged movie, the big prize. Again though, with Alejandro González Iñárritu having won the DGA for “Birdman” and “Boyhood” cleaning house at the BAFTAs, it’s safe to say that the night’s top honor will go to one of these two exceptional films. But which one?

Will win; “BOYHOOD”
Should win; “WHIPLASH”
Should have been nominated; “THE BABADOOK”, “COLD IN JULY”, “THE RAID 2”

BEST DIRECTOR

Alejandro González Iñárritu for “BIRDMAN”
Richard Linklater for “BOYHOOD”
Wes Anderson for “THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL”
Bennett Miller for “FOXCATCHER”
Morten Tyldum for “THE IMITATION GAME”

Why Bennett Miller is up there is beyond me. I liked “Foxcatcher” but it wasn’t even nominated for Best Picture. Damien Chazelle (“Whiplash”) and Ava DuVernay (“Selma”) were clearly more deserving of that spot. I would have given either of these terrific film-makers the nod over Morten Tyldum as well. I thought “The Imitation Game” was terrific, but I don’t think it’s in the same league as “Whiplash” or “Selma”. I’m really happy to see Wes Anderson in the mix but I don’t think he’s going to win either. Historically speaking, Best Picture and Best Director generally go hand in hand. Oscar has been know to split on occasion (that happened just last year with “Gravity” and “12 Years a Slave”) but more often than not, both awards usually go to the same film. It is possible that Iñárritu could take home the directing prize for his fantastically entertaining “Birdman” but something tells me that Linklater has got this one in the bag.

Will win; Richard Linklater for “BOYHOOD”
Should win; Alejandro González Iñárritu for “BIRDMAN”
Should have been nominated; Gareth Evans for “THE RAID 2”, Jennifer Kent for “THE BABADOOK”, Damien Chazelle for “WHIPLASH”, and Ava DuVernay for “SELMA”

BEST ACTRESS

Felecity Jones for “THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING”
Rosamund Pike for “GONE GIRL”
Reese Witherspoon for “WILD”
Julianne Moore for “STILL ALICE”
Marion Cotillard for “TWO DAYS, ONE NIGHT”

Unfortunately, I didn’t have an opportunity to see “Two Days, One Night” so I can’t comment on Cotillard’s performance. Beyond that, the other nominees are more than worthy. Witherspoon showed great physicality and inner strength in “Wild” and Jones had the daunting task of standing out alongside a very powerful Eddie Redmayne. As it turns out, she was completely up to the challenge. If you ask me though, think Julianne Moore is going to win in this category. Her performance as a 50 year old woman with Alzheimer’s is fantastic, but it also helps that Moore is loved by academy voters. She’s been nominated a few times but hasn’t won before and this will factor heavily into her potential win. Having said that, my favorite performance in this category, far and away, is Rosamund Pike for her stellar work in David Fincher’s “Gone Girl”. I don’t want to divulge much about her character because I don’t want to spoil things for the few of you who have yet to see this twisted, perversely entertaining movie. Let me just end by saying, I’d be ecstatic if Pike wins Best Actress.

Will win; Julianne Moore for “STILL ALICE”
Should win; Rosamund Pike for “GONE GIRL”
Should have been nominated; Essie Davis for “THE BABADOOK”

BEST ACTOR

Eddie Redmayne for “THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING”
Michael Keaton for “BIRDMAN”
Bradley Cooper for “AMERICAN SNIPER”
Steve Carell for “FOXCATCHER”
Benedict Cumberbatch for “THE IMITATION GAME”

Fierce competition here. Despite the controversy surrounding “American Sniper” I still believe Cooper gave a career best performance in that film. Likewise, Cumberbatch is fantastic in “The Imitation Game”. Carell was creepy in “Foxcatcher” but I don’t know that his work is as stellar as the other men in this category. That brings us to Redmayne and Keaton. Redmayne floored me in “The Theory of Everything”. The film as a whole wasn’t quite the masterpiece I hoped it would be but that is by no fault of an extraordinary Redmayne. As much praise is I’m throwing Redmayne’s way, I adored Keaton’s work in “Birdman” and of the nominees, he gave my favorite performance. While Redmayne might be slightly favored here, I have a hunch that Keaton will emerge victorious.

Will and should win; Michael Keaton for “BIRDMAN”
Should have been nominated; Andy Serkis for “DAWN OF THE PLANET OF THE APES” and Jake Gyllenhaal for “NIGHTCRAWLER”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Laura Dern for “WILD”
Keira Knightley for “THE IMITATION GAME
Emma Stone for “BIRDMAN”
Meryl Steep for “INTO THE WOODS”
Patricia Arquette for “BOYHOOD”

Again, a great category filled with deserving talent. Knightley does her best work in “The Imitation Game” and Dern breaks the heart in “Wild”. Perennial favorite Streep is a joy in “Into the Woods”. Ironically, the most overrated performance in this category will probably win the gold. Listen, I love Patricia Arquette and “Boyhood” was one my favorite movies of 2014 but a Best Supporting Actress nomination? She’s fine in the film and her willingness to stick with the picture throughout the course of 12 years is admirable but in terms of performance, Arquette has nothing on Emma Stone. Stone is the heart and soul of “Birdman”.

Will win; Patricia Arquette for “BOYHOOD”
Should win; Emma Stone for “BIRDMAN”
Should have been nominated; Katherine Wasterson for “INHERENT VICE”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

J.K. Simmons for “WHIPLASH”
Robert Duvall for “THE JUDGE”
Ethan Hawke for “BOYHOOD”
Edward Norton for “BIRDMAN”
Mark Ruffalo for “FOXCATHER”

I didn’t see “The Judge” but Duvall is a pro and I have no doubt he was the best part of that movie. I thought Hawke was good in “Boyhood”. Norton is at his egomaniacal best in “Birdman” while Ruffalo proves to steal “Foxcather” outright from the likes of Carell and Channing Tatum. In the end though, J.K. Simmons may have given the single most memorable performance of 2014, period! His work as militant jazz band instructor Terence Fletcher in “Whiplash” is simply unforgettable and if he doesn’t win the Oscar, I’ll be very surprised…and incredibly disappointed.

Will and should win; J.K. Simmons for “WHIPLASH”
Should have been nominated; Toby Kebbell for “DAWN OF THE PLANET OF THE APES” and Don Johnson for “COLD IN JULY”, and Josh Brolin for “INHERENT VICE”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

“AMERICAN SNIPER”
“THE IMITATION GAME”
“WHIPLASH”
“INHERENT VICE”
“THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING”

There’s so much controversy surrounding “American Sniper” right now that chances of it winning this award are slim. I still think it odd that “Whiplash” is nominated here rather than in the Best Original Screenplay category, but because of strange fine print rules, that’s the way it goes. I loved “Inherent Vice” but I still feel like it’s the mood that worked me over in that film and not necessarily the writing. Most likely, this is a battle between biopics about a couple of geniuses.

Will win; “THE IMITATION GAME”
Should win; “WHIPLASH”
Should have been nominated; “GONE GIRL” and “COLD IN JULY”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

“BIRDMAN”
“BOYHOOD”
“FOXCATCHER”
“THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL”
“NIGHTCRAWLER”

Interestingly enough, “Nightcrawler” was taken to court this week by a film-maker claiming that the movie is, more or less, a carbon copy of a picture that he made a few years ago. Having said that, I think it’s the competition that will be too much for “Nightcrawler” to handle rather than that lawsuit. “Boyhood” is more about direction and editing than the script. “Foxcatcher” has taken a bit of heat from one of the real life characters that movie is based on so that will probably hurt its chances a bit. That leaves a battle between satire and quirk.

Will and should win; “THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL”
Should have been nominated; “THE BABADOOK” and “RUDDERLESS”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

“BIG HERO 6”
“HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON 2″
“THE BOXTROLLS”
“SONG OF THE SEA”
“THE TALE OF PRINCESS KAGYUA”

I didn’t have an opportunity to see “Song of the Sea” or “The Tale of the Princess Kaguya” but I’m told that they are both phenomenal and more than worthy of a nomination. Having said that, I still can’t get over the fact that “The Lego Movie” missed the cut. A great movie about the power and importance of creativity. I respect and admire the sheer artistry of “The Boxtrolls” but from a story stand point, this Laika production was a step below “Coraline” and “ParaNorman”. While a bit reminiscent of “The Incredibles”, “Big Hero 6” still emerges as a fantastic entertainment. Of the films I’ve seen in this category though, my money would be on “How to Train Your Dragon 2”. Like the very best of sequels, this stunning follow-up managed to build on its already impressive world and it gave its characters new and emotionally powerful dynamics to explore.

Will and should win; “HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON 2”
Should have been nominated; “THE LEGO MOVIE”

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Lost Stars” from “BEGIN AGAIN”
“I’m Not Gonna Miss You” from “GLEN CAMPBELL: I’LL BE ME”
“Everything is Awesome” from “THE LEGO MOVIE”
“Glory” from “SELMA”
“Grateful from “BEYOND THE LIGHTS”

Since the little seen gem “Rudderless” was completely shut out in this category, let’s see what we’re left with it. As it turns out, all of these songs are great! “Lost Stars” is undeniably catchy and as is the case with “Grateful” and “I’m Not Gonna Miss You”, it deserves extra props for propelling a plot that is music based. Strangely though, the two best Original Songs in this category are in films that are not necessarily music driven. It’s great to see “Everything is Awesome” in the running, especially since “The Lego Movie” was robbed of a Best Animated Feature nomination, but as much as I like it, “Glory” is the tune that moved me most. Kudos to John Legend and Common. This passionate song compliments “Selma” in a big way and that’s why it’ll most likely win. Sadly, it’ll probably be the only win of the evening for the under appreciated “Selma”.

Will and should win; “Glory” from “SELMA”
Should have been nominated; “Sing Along” and “Home” from “RUDDERLESS”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

“BIRDMAN”
“THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL”
“IDA”
“MR. TURNER”
“UNBROKEN”

In any other year, this probably would have gone to the breathtaking cinematography in “Mr. Turner” but “Birdman” really is a spectacular display of camera work. I’ll be surprised if it doesn’t win.

Will and should win; “BIRDMAN”
Should have been nominated; “INHERENT VICE” and “NIGHTCRAWLER”

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

“THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL”
“INHERENT VICE”
“INTO THE WOODS”
“MR. TURNER”
“MALEFICENT”

All of these nominees are more than worthy but why aren’t super hero films ever nominated in this category? A hero is nothing without his/her costume.

Will and should win; “MR. TURNER”
Should have been nominated; “CAPTAIN AMERICA: THE WINTER SOLDIER” and “X-MEN: DAYS OF FUTURE PAST”

BEST FILM EDITING

“AMERICAN SNIPER”
“BOYHOOD”
“THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL”
“THE IMITATION GAME”
“WHIPLASH”

I completely understand why “Boyhood” will probably win this award but “Whiplash” deserves it. This story about a jazz drummer plays like a tense war film and a lot of that has to do with the way it was cut.

Will win; “BOYHOOD”
Should win; “WHIPLASH”
Should have been nominated; “THE RAID 2”

BEST MAKE-UP AND HAIRSTYLING

“FOXCATCHER”
“THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL”
“GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY”

It’s intriguing that the first winner ever in this category was Rick Baker for his brilliant work on “An American Werewolf in London” but in the years since, it seems like fewer and fewer genre films are recognized for Best Make-Up and Hairstyling. True, “Foxcatcher” offers up one hell of a fake nose, but I’d much rather see movies like “Oculus”, “Afflicted”, and “Cheap Thrills” on the ballot. Sure am glad to see that “Guardians of the Galaxy” made the cut though.

Will win; “FOXCATCHER”
Should win; “GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY”
Should have been nominated; “OCULUS”, “AFFLICTED”, and “CHEAP THRILLS”

BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

“THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL”
“THE IMITATION GAME”
“INTERSTELLAR”
“MR. TURNER”
“THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING”

I wasn’t as taken aback by “Interstellar” as everyone else seems to be but I’ll tell you…I LOVED HANS ZIMMER’S score. The chamber organ stuff is haunting and powerful. This is Zimmer’s best work in a long time. This is a tough category though. I loved all these scores.

Will win; “THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING”
Should win; “INTERSTELLAR”
Should have been nominated; “GONE GIRL” and “BIG EYES”

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

“THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL”
“THE IMITATION GAME”
“INTERSTELLAR”
“INTO THE WOODS”
“MR. TURNER”

Again, all solid choices but it irritates me that aside from “Interstellar”, larger, tent pole releases were all but ignored. “Guardians of the Galaxy” was totally worthy of a nomination. So was “Edge of Tomorrow“. And where is “Snowpiercer”?

Will and should win; “THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL”
Should have been nominated; “SNOWPIERCER”

BEST SOUND EDITING

“AMERICAN SNIPER”
“BIRDMAN”
“THE HOBBIT: THE BATTLE OF THE FIVE ARMIES”
“INTERSTELLAR”
“UNBROKEN”

No “Dawn of the Planet of the Apes” or “Guardians of the Galaxy”?!! WTF?!!

Will win; “INTERSTELLAR”
Should win; “AMERICAN SNIPER”
Should have been nominated; Take a guess!